Calibrated Probability Assessment

Accurate probability judgments are crucial for good decision making. One property of good probability judgments is that they are well calibrated meaning that the proportion of events judged to have a certain probability say 60 that actually come occur is equal to that probability. For example, 60 of events judged to have a 60 chance of occuring should actually end up happening. To take a calibration test, select a question list. If this is your first time, use the default list.

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CALIBRATEDPROBABILITYASSESSMENT.ORG HISTORY

The website calibratedprobabilityassessment.org was first filed on April 25, 2008. As of today, it is eight hundred and sixty-seven weeks, eighteen days, four hours, and seven minutes young.
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LINKS TO DOMAIN

Good Morning, Economics Thoughts on economics and political economy

Thoughts on economics and political economy. PyMC 3 guided examples in IPython notebook. March 24, 2013 in statistics. I wrote up some guided examples for the development version of PyMC 3 in IPython notebook, and they came out beautifully. And a more impressive stochastic volatility example.

sethrylan.org

Pinboard Bookmarks for Busy People. An Educated Guess Calibrated Probability Assessment. Something Old, Something New 15 Dec 2013. FindBugs for Android 14 Jul 2013. I make things and live in Charleston, South Carolina. Built with Jekyll and hosted. Mdash; Theme by orderedlist.

SimfishInquilineKeas Thoughts Random musings of mine

Feeling discouraged from doing anything math intensive? General thoughts on applying to places. Mind-expanding things to try out. What drives me to do the things i do? Anonymous on list of nifty computer tricks. On this is a sticky page.

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CONTACTS

John Salvatier

7502 2nd AVE NE

Seattle, Washington, 98115

US

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Calibrated Probability Assessment

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Accurate probability judgments are crucial for good decision making. One property of good probability judgments is that they are well calibrated meaning that the proportion of events judged to have a certain probability say 60 that actually come occur is equal to that probability. For example, 60 of events judged to have a 60 chance of occuring should actually end up happening. To take a calibration test, select a question list. If this is your first time, use the default list.

PARSED CONTENT

The website states the following, "Accurate probability judgments are crucial for good decision making." We viewed that the web page also stated " One property of good probability judgments is that they are well calibrated meaning that the proportion of events judged to have a certain probability say 60 that actually come occur is equal to that probability." It also said " For example, 60 of events judged to have a 60 chance of occuring should actually end up happening. To take a calibration test, select a question list. If this is your first time, use the default list." The header had probability as the highest ranking search term. This keyword is followed by calibration, probability calibration, and calibrated probability assessment which isn't as urgent as probability. The other words they uses is prbability assessment. risk is included and might not be seen by web engines.

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